Project Northstar — Illustrative Consumer Platform
Unit economics, reinvestment and the path to free cash flow
A driver-led operating framework for understanding growth quality and the cash required to support it.
Independent financial research
Financial analysis, valuation and investment research.
I publish selected company research, financial models and valuation work here—along with the assumptions behind them.
Flagship research · Illustrative
Project Cedar — Illustrative Alternative Asset Manager
Separating recurring earnings, carried interest and balance-sheet capital
A worked example of valuing an alternative asset manager by separating recurring management economics from episodic carried interest and invested capital.
- Format
- DCF & Sum-of-the-Parts
- Status
- Illustrative report
Illustrative value contribution in $ millions. Fee-related earnings are valued from recurring cash flow; carried interest and balance-sheet capital are shown separately.
- Fee-related earnings
- $983.7 million — DCF of recurring cash flow
- Carried interest
- $155.0 million — Risk-adjusted estimate
- Balance-sheet capital
- $210.0 million — Illustrative net asset value
Selected work
Research notes
Read
Private Credit Underwriting Framework
Cash conversion, covenants and downside protection
A practical structure for evaluating debt service, liquidity, documentation and recovery under stress.
Earnings Review Framework
Separating reported growth from operating progress
A repeatable approach to normalising earnings, identifying temporary factors and updating a forward view.
Working structures
Financial models
| Company or case | Model type | Forecast period | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Project Cedar | SOTP & DCF model | 2024A–2029E | Illustrative entry — workbook not published |
| Project Northstar | Operating and valuation model | 2024A–2029E | Illustrative entry — workbook not published |
| Project Granite | Private-credit downside and recovery model | Bear, Base and Bull | Illustrative entry — workbook not published |
Research approach
How I approach the work
I try to keep the model subordinate to the business rather than the other way around.
- 01Understand the business before opening the model.
- 02Identify the operating variables that actually move cash flow.
- 03Separate reported earnings from economic earning power.
- 04Test the valuation across scenarios rather than defend one precise answer.
About
Analysis is more useful when the reasoning stays visible.
I work across private equity, risk and reporting, with earlier experience at JPMorgan Chase and in market-data consulting. This site is a place to share selected analytical work and how I think through it.
More about meLet’s talk
Questions about finance—or something I’ve published here?
I use Topmate for practical, direct conversations about finance careers, private equity, credit, operations, risk and data.